** WTSR20 WSSS 311800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 010000 *** WARNING 010000. WARNING VALID 020000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA AT 10.5N 143.1E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 12.3N 139.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 14.0N 135.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 16.3N 133.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 010000UTC 10.5N 143.1E GOOD MOVE W 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 020000UTC 12.3N 139.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 030000UTC 14.0N 135.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 040000UTC 16.3N 133.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 10.5N 143.2E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 280KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 12.1N 139.8E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 13.6N 135.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 16.1N 132.7E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z1 --- NEAR 10.6N7 143.2E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N7 143.2E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 11.3N5 141.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 12.2N5 139.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 13.3N7 137.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 14.4N9 135.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 16.7N4 132.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 19.1N1 131.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 22.2N6 131.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.8N9 142.8E5. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0, 011500Z7, 012100Z4 AND 020300Z5.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 010300 *** WARNING 010300. WARNING VALID 020300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 990 HPA AT 10.6N 142.2E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 12.5N 138.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 10.6N 142.2E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 12.5N 138.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 030000UTC 14.0N 135.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 040000UTC 16.3N 133.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 010400 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NESAT(04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 200 PM GUAM LST WED JUN 1 2005 ...INTENSIFYING TROPICAL STORM NESAT CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FAIS AND ULITHI ON THURSDAY IF TROPICAL STORM NESAT INTENSIFIES MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST OR TRACKS SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 195 MILES NORTH OF FARAULEP 170 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FAIS 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 330 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP AND 225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TROPICAL STORM NESAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUT TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 80 MILES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ MCELROY ** WTKO20 RKSL 010000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 010000UTC 10.6N 143.0E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020000UTC 12.2N 139.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 030000UTC 14.0N 135.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 040000UTC 16.3N 133.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT80 EGRR 010454 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.06.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OF FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010454