** WTPQ20 RJTD 311800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 311800UTC 10.4N 144.3E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 011800UTC 11.2N 141.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z3 --- NEAR 10.5N6 144.6E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N6 144.6E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 11.0N2 143.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 11.9N1 141.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 12.8N1 138.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 13.7N1 136.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 15.9N5 133.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 17.4N2 131.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 19.7N7 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.6N7 144.2E1. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4, 010900Z0, 011500Z7 AND 012100Z4.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 312143 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 7 800 AM GUAM LST WED JUN 1 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM 04W MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IF TROPICAL STORM 04W INTENSIFIES MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST OR TRACKS SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF FARAULEP 260 MILES EAST OF FAIS 315 MILES EAST OF ULITHI 420 MILES EAST OF YAP AND 200 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...10.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 144.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ MUSONDA ** WTPQ20 RJTD 312100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 312100UTC 10.4N 144.0E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 012100UTC 11.4N 140.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT =