** WTIN20 DEMS 310650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 31-05-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONNECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 310600UTC 09.9N 145.2E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 10.6N 141.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 310600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.9N 145.2E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 310600 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 310900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZMAY05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z0 --- NEAR 9.9N8 145.5E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N8 145.5E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 10.2N3 144.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 10.8N9 141.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 11.6N8 139.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 12.4N7 137.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 14.4N9 133.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 16.3N0 131.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 18.1N0 130.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.0N1 145.1E1. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 310341Z2 AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDI- TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0, 012100Z4, 010300Z4 AND 010900Z0.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 310900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZMAY05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z0 --- NEAR 9.9N8 145.5E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N8 145.5E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 10.2N3 144.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 10.8N9 141.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 11.6N8 139.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 12.4N7 137.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 14.4N9 133.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 16.3N0 131.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 18.1N0 130.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.0N1 145.1E1. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 310341Z2 AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDI- TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0, 012100Z4, 010300Z4 AND 010900Z0.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 310900UTC 10.0N 144.8E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 010900UTC 10.6N 141.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 310948 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 5 800 PM GUAM LST TUE MAY 31 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM 04W MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IF TROPICAL STORM 04W INTENSIFIES MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST OR TRACKS SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP 310 MILES EAST OF FAIS 375 MILES EAST OF ULITHI 480 MILES EAST OF YAP AND 240 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...10.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 145.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ AHN