** WTSR20 WSSS 301800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 310000UTC 09.8N 145.6E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 010000UTC 10.5N 141.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 310000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.8N 145.6E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 310000 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 310300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z4 --- NEAR 9.7N6 145.8E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N6 145.8E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 10.0N1 144.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 10.5N6 142.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 11.2N4 140.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 11.9N1 138.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 13.6N0 134.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 15.3N9 132.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 16.9N6 130.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 9.8N7 145.4E4. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM'S CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 302043Z2 SSMI PASS VERIFIES THE POSITION THAT PLACES THE 310000Z4 POSITION JUST SOUTH OF THE 301800Z2 POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3, 311500Z0, 312100Z7 AND 010300Z4.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 310300UTC 09.8N 145.5E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 010300UTC 10.5N 140.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 310357 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 4 2 PM GUAM LST TUE MAY 31 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM 04W CONTINUES TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IF TROPICAL STORM 04W INTENSIFIES MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST OR TRACKS SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF ITS FORECAST TRACK. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP 255 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM 330 MILES EAST OF FAIS 395 MILES EAST OF ULITHI 495 MILES EAST OF YAP TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 145.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MCELROY ** WTNT80 EGRR 310521 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.05.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 310521