** WTPQ20 RJTD 301800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 301800UTC 09.6N 146.1E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 311800UTC 11.0N 141.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 302100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z2 --- NEAR 10.0N1 145.9E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N1 145.9E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 10.5N6 144.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 10.9N0 142.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 11.4N6 141.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 11.9N1 139.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 13.0N4 134.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 14.2N7 131.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 15.1N7 128.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.1N2 145.5E5. TROPICAL sTORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7, 310900Z3, 311500Z0 AND 312100Z7.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 302100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z2 --- NEAR 10.0N1 145.9E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N1 145.9E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 10.5N6 144.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 10.9N0 142.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 11.4N6 141.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 11.9N1 139.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 13.0N4 134.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 14.2N7 131.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 15.1N7 128.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.1N2 145.5E5. TROPICAL sTORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7, 310900Z3, 311500Z0 AND 312100Z7.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 302147 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 8 AM GUAM LST TUE MAY 31 2005 ...04W NOW A TROPICAL STORM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 340 MILES EAST OF FAIS 400 MILES EAST OF ULITHI 505 MILES EAST OF YAP TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 145.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 302100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 302100UTC 09.8N 145.9E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 312100UTC 11.0N 141.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT =