** WTSR20 WSSS 291800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN21 PGTW 300200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 300151ZMAY2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N7 149.2E6 TO 10.5N6 143.7E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292330Z9 INDI- CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9 148.3E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N2 148.3E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9 148.3E6, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SE OF GUAM. A 292057Z5 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AND RECENT ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED AND IS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND SURFACE INFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 310200Z6.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 300546 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.05.2005 NO TROPICAL STORMS ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300546