** WTPZ21 KNHC 201436 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 1500Z FRI MAY 20 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 87.5W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 87.5W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 85.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 87.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 201437 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005 ...ADRIAN DISSIPATING OVER HONDURAS...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS... AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN WAS DISSIPATING NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST...OR INLAND OVER WESTERN HONDURAS. THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...15.0 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 201439 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005 ADRIAN HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER HONDURAS THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATIONS OF A CIRCULATION...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN SIX HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...ADRIAN STILL POSES THE THREAT FOR MORE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. A REMNANT LOW CENTER IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 15.0N 87.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 16.5N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 200600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT80 EGRR 201715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.05.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 87.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.05.2005 13.1N 87.9W WEAK 00UTC 21.05.2005 13.9N 85.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.05.2005 16.0N 83.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.05.2005 16.3N 82.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.05.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201715