** WTCA31 MHTG 200615Z *** MHTG SIGMET2 VALID 200600/201200 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC ADRIAN OBS 13.4N 89.6W A LAS 0328Z MVNG NOR ESTE CON UNA PRESION EN SU CENTRO DE 987MBS TS CB TPS FL500 NC TC CENTRE A LAS 20600 UTC 13.5N 89.3W INLAND WIND MAX 77KT. ** WTCA31 MHTG 200615Z *** MHTG SIGMET2 VALID 200600/201200 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC ADRIAN OBS 13.4N 89.6W A LAS 0328Z MVNG NOR ESTE CON UNA PRESION EN SU CENTRO DE 987MBS TS CB TPS FL500 NC TC CENTRE A LAS 20600 UTC 13.5N 89.3W INLAND WIND MAX 77KT. ** WTIN20 DEMS 200645 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 20-05-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER NORTH ANDMAN SEA,ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTPZ41 KNHC 200837 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ADRIAN WAS DECAYING RAPIDLY IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PRECISE TIME AND INTENSITY OF LANDFALL...THE OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES BEING 65 KT AND 6Z...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...A POST STORM ANALYSIS MAY WELL CONCLUDE THAT ADRIAN CAME ASHORE AS A TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 6Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ONLY 55 KT...WHILE AFWA WAS STILL AT 65 KT. WITH THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND ARE BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EL SALVADOR ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONSISTENT WITH MY INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE BUT THESE MAY BE AFFECTED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER ADRIAN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT MAY WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN. SHOULD ADRIAN OR ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.8N 88.9W 55 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 20/1800Z 14.5N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 21/0600Z 15.8N 85.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 200837 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 0900Z FRI MAY 20 2005 AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS FOR GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS. AT 2 AM PDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 88.9W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 88.9W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 89.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.8N 85.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 83.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 88.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 200839 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005 ...ADRIAN WEAKENING RAPIDLY AFTER MOVING INLAND... AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS FOR GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS. AT 2 AM PDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST OR INLAND OVER CENTRAL EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL BE BE MOVING ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY. ADRIAN IS WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...13.8 N... 88.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 201138 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005 ...ADRIAN RAPIDLY BECOMING DISORGANIZED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA... AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL EL SALVADOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST...WELL INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HONDURAS TODAY. ADRIAN HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER LAND...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER... STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN MAY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES ...50 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...14.3 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$