** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA31 MHTG 200112 *** MHTG SIGMET1 VALID 200000/200600 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC ADRIAN OBS 13.1N 90.1 A LAS 0000Z MVNG NOR ESTE CON UNA PRESION EN SU CENTRO DE 982MBS TS CB TPS FL500 NC TC CENTRE A LAS 200600 UTC 13.8N 89.3W INLAND WIND MAX 45KT GUSTS 55 KT. ** WTPZ21 KNHC 200239 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 0300Z FRI MAY 20 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA EAST OF SIPICATE TO THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SIPICATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 89.6W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 89.6W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.7N 84.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.2N 81.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 89.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 200241 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA EAST OF SIPICATE TO THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SIPICATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR VERY NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN BE MOVING INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND OVER HONDURAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADRIAN WILL WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HAM RADIO REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 81 MPH...130 KM/HR...AT COMALAPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...13.4 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 200250 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 THE HURRICANE APPEARS LESS WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES THAN IT DID EARLIER TODAY...WITH A LACK OF BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS FAIRLY INTENSE...SUGGESTING THAT IT STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. CENTER FIXES...FROM BOTH GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PLATFORMS...ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ADRIAN IS ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE. LANDFALL IS IMMINENT...AND THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST. ADRIAN IS EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER SUCH ROUGH TOPOGRAPHY. NONETHELESS THE NHC FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. SHOULD ADRIAN OR ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RE-INTENSIFICATION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE ATLANTIC. NOTE...ONLY IF THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.4N 89.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 14.4N 88.3W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.7N 84.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 19.2N 81.8W 25 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 76.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 69.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z2 --- NEAR 13.1N5 90.0W9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N5 90.0W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.4N9 88.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.0N7 86.2W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 17.7N5 84.1W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 19.2N2 81.8W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 22.0N4 76.0W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 25.0N7 69.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 025 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200000Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.1N5 90.0W9. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN) JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. ALL FURTHER WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK, VA UNDER THE MANOP WTNT01 KNGU NEXT WARNING IS AT 201000Z3 THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 RRB *** OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.0N7 86.2W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 17.7N5 84.1W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 19.2N2 81.8W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 22.0N4 76.0W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 25.0N7 69.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 025 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200000Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.1N5 90.0W9. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN) JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. ALL FURTHER WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK, VA UNDER THE MANOP WTNT01 KNGU NEXT WARNING IS AT 201000Z3 THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z2 --- NEAR 13.1N5 90.0W9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N5 90.0W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.4N9 88.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z2 --- NEAR 13.1N5 90.0W9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N5 90.0W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.4N9 88.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.0N7 86.2W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 17.7N5 84.1W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 19.2N2 81.8W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 22.0N4 76.0W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 25.0N7 69.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 025 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200000Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.1N5 90.0W9. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN) JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. ALL FURTHER WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK, VA UNDER THE MANOP WTNT01 KNGU NEXT WARNING IS AT 201000Z3 THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 200528 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.05.2005 HURRICANE ADRIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 89.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.05.2005 12.7N 89.9W STRONG 12UTC 20.05.2005 13.1N 88.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.05.2005 15.3N 86.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.05.2005 16.0N 85.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.05.2005 16.4N 84.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.05.2005 16.6N 83.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200528 ** WTNT80 EGRR 200531 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.05.2005 HURRICANE ADRIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 89.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.05.2005 12.7N 89.9W STRONG 12UTC 20.05.2005 13.1N 88.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.05.2005 15.3N 86.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.05.2005 16.0N 85.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.05.2005 16.4N 84.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.05.2005 16.6N 83.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200531 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 200544 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ...ADRIAN MAKING LANDFALL IN EL SALVADOR... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA EAST OF SIPICATE TO THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.3 WEST OR ON THE COAST NEAR SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN BE MOVING ACROSS EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND OVER HONDURAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...13.5 N... 89.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$