** WTCA31 MHTG 192036 *** MHTG SIGMET 1 VALID 191800/200000 MHTG- FIR CENTRO AMERICA TC ADRIAN OBS 12.6N 90.6W A LAS 1800 UTC. MOVNG NE PRESION EN EL CENTRO 982 HP. VTOS. MAX. 85KT. TS CB TPS FL500 CENTRE MOV NE 15 KM NC. TC CENTRO A LAS 200000 UTC 13.4N 89.9 W WI MAX 70 KT GUSTS 85KT. ** WTPZ21 KNHC 192041 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 2100Z THU MAY 19 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD ALONG THE EL SALVADOR COAST TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 90.3W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 90.3W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 90.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.8N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.2N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.8N 85.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.4N 83.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 90.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 192043 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ...ADRIAN HEADING FOR CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 85 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD ALONG THE EL SALVADOR COAST TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 150 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...12.9 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 192054 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ADRIAN INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE EARLIER TODAY...AS INDICATED BY REPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH PENETRATED THE CENTER AT 1655Z AND 1830Z. ESTIMATES OF THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL...WERE 982 MB AND 984 MB. AIRBORNE RADAR DEPICTED A CIRCULAR EYE WITH 10 NM DIAMETER... AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED WAS 92 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THESE DATA CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF 75 KT...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE SYSTEM...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED. HOWEVER...ADRIAN IS STILL LIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AS A HURRICANE. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL SPEND MANY HOURS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IF A WEAKENED ADRIAN EMERGES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PROHIBITIVE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. ONLY IF THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ADRIAN TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 12.9N 90.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 13.8N 89.3W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 20/1800Z 15.2N 87.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 21/0600Z 16.8N 85.6W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 21/1800Z 18.4N 83.2W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 22.0N 77.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z9 --- NEAR 12.6N9 90.6W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N9 90.6W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 13.8N2 89.3W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 15.2N8 87.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.8N5 85.6W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 18.4N3 83.2W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 22.0N4 77.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 25.0N7 70.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191800Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 90.6W5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z6, 201000Z3, 201600Z9 AND 202200Z6.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z9 --- NEAR 12.6N9 90.6W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N9 90.6W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 13.8N2 89.3W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 RRB *** OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 15.2N8 87.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.8N5 85.6W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 18.4N3 83.2W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 22.0N4 77.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 25.0N7 70.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191800Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 90.6W5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z6, 201000Z3, 201600Z9 AND 202200Z6.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z9 --- NEAR 12.6N9 90.6W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N9 90.6W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 13.8N2 89.3W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 15.2N8 87.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.8N5 85.6W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 18.4N3 83.2W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 22.0N4 77.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 25.0N7 70.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191800Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 90.6WS MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. WARNING NUMBER NINE WAS OMITTED AS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUED A SUPPLE- MENTARY ADVISORY TO UPGRADE 01E TO A HURRICANE. THEREFORE, THIS WARNING MESSAGE HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO NUMBER TEN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z6, 201000Z3, 201600Z9 AND 202200Z6.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 RRB *** OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 15.2N8 87.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.8N5 85.6W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 18.4N3 83.2W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 22.0N4 77.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 25.0N7 70.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191800Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 90.6WS MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. WARNING NUMBER NINE WAS OMITTED AS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUED A SUPPLE- MENTARY ADVISORY TO UPGRADE 01E TO A HURRICANE. THEREFORE, THIS WARNING MESSAGE HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO NUMBER TEN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z6, 201000Z3, 201600Z9 AND 202200Z6.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z9 --- NEAR 12.6N9 90.6W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N9 90.6W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 13.8N2 89.3W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 15.2N8 87.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.8N5 85.6W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 18.4N3 83.2W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 22.0N4 77.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 25.0N7 70.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191800Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 90.6WS MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. WARNING NUMBER NINE WAS OMITTED AS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUED A SUPPLE- MENTARY ADVISORY TO UPGRADE 01E TO A HURRICANE. THEREFORE, THIS WARNING MESSAGE HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO NUMBER TEN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z6, 201000Z3, 201600Z9 AND 202200Z6.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 192335 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ...ADRIAN APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD ALONG THE EL SALVADOR COAST TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 125 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR...AND ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAJUTLA ON THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...13.1 N... 90.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$