** WTSR20 WSSS 190600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 191442 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ...ADRIAN A LITTLE STRONGER...OUTER RAINBANDS ALREADY REACHING THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA... AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ADRIAN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL FLY INTO ADRIAN LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...12.5 N... 90.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 191451 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 1500Z THU MAY 19 2005 AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 90.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 90.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.4N 89.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.6N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.6N 84.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 90.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 191500 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 THE INNER CORE OF ADRIAN IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO. DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING MORE COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER... AND DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. ADDITIONALLY...A 1238Z SSMI PASS REVEALS INNER CORE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND VERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT INTENSIFICATION. ADRIAN IS NOW MOVING DIRECTLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...045/8. MAINLY DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING OTHERWISE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. A MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY ACCELERATE ADRIAN TO THE NORTHEAST. IF IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA...IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AFTER MOVING NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ON DAYS 4 AND 5. AGAIN IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 12.5N 90.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.4N 89.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 14.6N 88.3W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.6N 84.4W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 191508 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8... CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ...CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH... ...OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT...NOT RIGHT...OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY... THE INNER CORE OF ADRIAN IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO. DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING MORE COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER... AND DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. ADDITIONALLY...A 1238Z SSMI PASS REVEALS INNER CORE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND VERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT INTENSIFICATION. ADRIAN IS NOW MOVING DIRECTLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...045/8. MAINLY DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING OTHERWISE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. A MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY ACCELERATE ADRIAN TO THE NORTHEAST. IF IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA...IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AFTER MOVING NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ON DAYS 4 AND 5. AGAIN IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 12.5N 90.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.4N 89.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 14.6N 88.3W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.6N 84.4W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z3 --- NEAR 12.2N5 91.2W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N5 91.2W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.4N8 89.9W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.6N1 88.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.0N7 86.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 17.6N4 84.4W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 21.0N3 79.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 25.0N7 72.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 29.0N1 64.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191600Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 90.8W7. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z4, 200400Z6, 201000Z3 AND 201600Z9.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z3 --- NEAR 12.2N5 91.2W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N5 91.2W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.4N8 89.9W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.6N1 88.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 RRB *** --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.0N7 86.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 17.6N4 84.4W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 21.0N3 79.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 25.0N7 72.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 29.0N1 64.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191600Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 90.8W7. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z4, 200400Z6, 201000Z3 AND 201600Z9.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z3 --- NEAR 12.2N5 91.2W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N5 91.2W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.4N8 89.9W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.6N1 88.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.0N7 86.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 17.6N4 84.4W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 21.0N3 79.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 25.0N7 72.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 29.0N1 64.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191600Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 90.8W7. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z4, 200400Z6, 201000Z3 AND 201600Z9.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z3 --- NEAR 12.2N5 91.2W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N5 91.2W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.4N8 89.9W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.6N1 88.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.0N7 86.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 17.6N4 84.4W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 21.0N3 79.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 25.0N7 72.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 29.0N1 64.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191600Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 90.8W7. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z4, 200400Z6, 201000Z3 AND 201600Z9.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 191715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.05.2005 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 91.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.05.2005 12.1N 91.3W MODERATE 00UTC 20.05.2005 12.6N 90.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.05.2005 13.2N 89.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.05.2005 15.0N 86.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.05.2005 15.8N 84.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.05.2005 16.7N 83.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.05.2005 17.2N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.05.2005 17.6N 80.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.05.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191715 ** WTPZ61 KNHC 191721 *** TCUEP1 ZCZC MIATCUEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1015 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ADRIAN HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ADRIAN WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ NNNN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 191735 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 1800Z THU MAY 19 2005 AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR HAVE UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 90.6W AT 19/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 90.6W AT 19/1800Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.4N 89.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.6N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.6N 84.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 90.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ61 KNHC 191741 CCA *** TCUEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1015 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ... CORRECTED HEADER INFORMATION ... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ADRIAN HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ADRIAN WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 191747 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ...AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATES THAT ADRIAN IS A HURRICANE... AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR HAVE UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...12.6 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 191749 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPGRADE ADRIAN TO A HURRICANE AND TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING. NO CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ARE INDICATED. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1800Z 12.6N 90.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.4N 89.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 14.6N 88.3W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.6N 84.4W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$