** WTIN20 DEMS 190615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 19-05-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER ANDAMAN SEA SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST BAY OF BENGAL ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER MALDIVE SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ41 KNHC 190837 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ADRIAN IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. MICROWAVE PASSES AT 0031Z AND 0440Z ARE ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF A LITTLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45...45...AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVLY. I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 00Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WIND FIELD OF ADRIAN IS VERY SMALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/6. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS MAINLY WITH THE SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS HOLDS ADRIAN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE ACCELERATING IT NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFDL MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR ADRIAN HAVE BEEN EXCESSIVE. THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET THUS FAR... SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE...I DO NOT EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH ADRIAN COULD CERTAINLY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LANDFALL. ADRIAN'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED WHEN IT CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS. ONLY IF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. WHATEVER EMERGES INTO THE CARRIBEAN WILL COME UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 11.6N 91.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 12.2N 90.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 13.2N 89.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 14.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 85.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 19.5N 80.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 23.0N 74.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 66.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 190838 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ...ADRIAN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...350 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ADRIAN VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...11.6 N... 91.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 190838 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 0900Z THU MAY 19 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 91.6W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 91.6W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 91.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.2N 90.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.2N 89.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.0N 74.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.5N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 91.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z6 --- NEAR 11.4N6 91.9W9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N6 91.9W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 12.2N5 90.8W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 13.2N6 89.3W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 14.5N0 87.5W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.0N7 85.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 19.5N5 80.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 23.0N5 74.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 27.5N4 66.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191000Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.7N9 91.5W5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z7, 192200Z4, 200400Z6 AND 201000Z3.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z6 --- NEAR 11.4N6 91.9W9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N6 91.9W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 12.2N5 90.8W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 13.2N6 89.3W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 14.5N0 87.5W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.0N7 85.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 19.5N5 80.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 23.0N5 74.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 27.5N4 66.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191000Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.7N9 91.5W5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z7, 192200Z4, 200400Z6 AND 201000Z3.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 191136 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 ...ADRIAN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ADRIAN VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL FLY INTO ADRIAN LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...12.2 N... 91.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$