** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 190227 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 0300Z THU MAY 19 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 92.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 92.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.9N 91.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.1N 89.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.3N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 92.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 190228 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 ...ADRIAN HEADED FOR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH..LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...11.2 N... 92.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 190228 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 DEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHED EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WAS PROBABLY A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. RECENT IMAGES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR/OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM. ADRIAN COULD STILL INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST...IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT BECOME TOO STRONG. ADRIAN'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED WHEN IT CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL NOT FAVOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. IF IT SURVIVES...THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION...065/07...RATHER UNCERTAIN. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 11.2N 92.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 11.9N 91.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 13.1N 89.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 14.3N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 21/0000Z 15.8N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 26.0N 68.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z0 --- NEAR 11.0N2 92.3W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N2 92.3W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 11.9N1 91.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.1N5 89.6W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.3N8 88.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 15.8N4 86.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 19.5N5 81.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 23.0N5 75.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 26.0N8 68.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190000Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.0N2 92.3W4. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z1, 191600Z7, 192200Z4 AND 200400Z6.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z0 --- NEAR 11.0N2 92.3W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N2 92.3W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 11.9N1 91.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.1N5 89.6W3 ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 RRC *** 240000Z6 --- 26.0N8 68.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190000Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.0N2 92.3W4. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z1, 191600Z7, 192200Z4 AND 200400Z6.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.3N8 88.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 15.8N4 86.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 19.5N5 81.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 23.0N5 75.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPZ31 KNHC 190542 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 ...ADRIAN HEADED FOR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH..LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...11.4 N... 91.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$