** WTSR20 WSSS 180600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 180600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 181412 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN DRAWN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...AN 18/0920Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS DISPLACED ABOUT 45-60 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN THE VARIOUS SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS... SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK...AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES SEEN IN 37GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE DATA AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 055/07. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER COULD FORM FARTHER EAST UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE HAS DECREASED...SO I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL TRACK MOTION AT THIS TIME. THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO...WHERE A RIDGE IS USUALLY LOCATED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE ADRIAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ON DAY 2 AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 3. WHETHER OR NOT ADRIAN MAKES IT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTACT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEPEND IN PART ON JUST HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS THREE FORECASTS AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES REMAIN QUITE PRONOUNCED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXCELLENT. AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH AND AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORERCASTING A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN... ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ADRIAN UP TO ABOUT 55 KT IN 24 HOURS AND THEN LEVELS IT OFF UNTIL LANDFALL. THE GFDL IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT IT STILL MAKES ADRIAN A 95-KT HURRICANE IN 24-36 HOURS. THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST REQUIRES THAT THE GFDL INTENSITY FORCAST BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT AT THIS TIME...BUT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS STILL A VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WINDS COULD BE NEARING THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IN ABOUT 30-36 HOURS...SO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. ADRIAN ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 11.1N 93.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 11.6N 92.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 12.6N 91.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 13.6N 89.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 15.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 181412 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 1500Z WED MAY 18 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 93.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 93.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 93.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.6N 92.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.6N 91.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.6N 89.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 93.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 181413 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 ...RARE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...OUTER RAINBANDS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...11.1 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z2 --- NEAR 10.9N0 93.8W0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N0 93.8W0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 11.6N8 92.6W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 12.6N9 91.3W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.6N0 89.8W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 15.0N6 88.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 18.0N9 84.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 21.0N3 79.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 24.0N6 73.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 181600Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.1N3 93.5W7. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITION AL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z3, 190400Z4, 191000Z1 AND 191600Z7.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z2 --- NEAR 10.9N0 93.8W0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N0 93.8W0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 11.6N8 92.6W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 12.6N9 91.3W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.6N0 89.8W5 ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 15.0N6 88.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 18.0N9 84.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 21.0N3 79.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 24.0N6 73.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 181600Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.1N3 93.5W7. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITION AL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z3, 190400Z4, 191000Z1 AND 191600Z7.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 181654 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.05.2005 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 10.7N 93.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.05.2005 10.7N 93.9W MODERATE 00UTC 19.05.2005 12.1N 93.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.05.2005 12.7N 92.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.05.2005 12.7N 91.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.05.2005 12.8N 90.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.05.2005 15.8N 94.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.05.2005 14.5N 94.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.05.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181654 ** WTNT80 EGRR 181654 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.05.2005 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 10.7N 93.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.05.2005 10.7N 93.9W MODERATE 00UTC 19.05.2005 12.1N 93.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.05.2005 12.7N 92.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.05.2005 12.7N 91.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.05.2005 12.8N 90.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.05.2005 15.8N 94.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.05.2005 14.5N 94.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.05.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181654 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 181752 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 ...ADRIAN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA... ... A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES... 440 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. OUTER RAINBANDS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA...AND COULD BEGIN AFFECTING EL SALVADOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...10.9 N... 92.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART $$