** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 180226 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 0300Z WED MAY 18 2005 INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO EL SALVADOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 94.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 94.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 94.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.7N 93.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.4N 92.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.3N 91.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 20NE 70SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 94.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 180226 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW INCREASED CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KT...35 KT...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB... AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THUS THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS WELL-DEFINED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST A LA THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THIS IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST...BUT LESS THAN INDICATED BY THE GFDL. SHOULD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVE ITS TREK OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND REGIME. SHIPS...USING THE GFS MODEL FORECAST WINDS...SHOWS 30-40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR BY DAYS 4-5. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR RE-STRENGTHENING. INITIAL MOTION IS 055/04. THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS PREDICTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ADRIAN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL TRACK. A BIG CONCERN WITH ADRIAN IS ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STORM IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THAT REGION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 10.3N 94.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 10.7N 93.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 11.4N 92.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 12.3N 91.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 13.5N 89.5W 60 KT...NEAR COAST 72HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 85.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 20.5N 80.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 74.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 180227 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON...COULD CAUSE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA... INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO EL SALVADOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES... 710 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...OUTER RAINBANDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...10.3 N... 94.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 180400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z9 --- NEAR 10.1N2 94.9W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N2 94.9W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 10.7N8 93.9W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 11.4N6 92.7W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 12.3N6 91.4W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.5N9 89.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 17.0N8 85.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 20.5N7 80.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 25.0N7 74.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 180400Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.3N4 94.7W0. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDI TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z0, 181600Z6, 182200Z3 AND 190400Z4.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 180400 RRB *** 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 17.0N8 85.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 20.5N7 80.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 25.0N7 74.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 180400Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.3N4 94.7W0. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDI TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z0, 181600Z6, 182200Z3 AND 190400Z4.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 180400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z9 --- NEAR 10.1N2 94.9W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N2 94.9W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 10.7N8 93.9W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 11.4N6 92.7W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 12.3N6 91.4W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.5N9 89.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 180400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z9 --- NEAR 10.1N2 94.9W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N2 94.9W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 10.7N8 93.9W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 11.4N6 92.7W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 12.3N6 91.4W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.5N9 89.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 17.0N8 85.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 20.5N7 80.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 25.0N7 74.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 180400Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.3N4 94.7W0. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDI TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z0, 181600Z6, 182200Z3 AND 190400Z4.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 180508 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.05.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 94.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.05.2005 10.3N 94.6W MODERATE 12UTC 18.05.2005 10.7N 94.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.05.2005 12.1N 94.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.05.2005 12.2N 94.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.05.2005 12.2N 93.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.05.2005 12.7N 92.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.05.2005 13.2N 91.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.05.2005 14.7N 89.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.05.2005 15.1N 88.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.05.2005 16.2N 85.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.05.2005 16.6N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.05.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180508