** WTPZ31 KNHC 172002 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005 ...EARLY SEASON DEPRESSION DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...COULD CAUSE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA... INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO EL SALVADOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT 470 MILES... 760 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS UNUSUAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...OUTER RAINBANDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH IS NOT TYPICAL...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION... 9.9 N... 95.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 172002 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005 2100Z TUE MAY 17 2005 INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO EL SALVADOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 95.0W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 95.0W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 95.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.2N 94.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.7N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 92.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.7N 91.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 87.0W...NORTH OF HONDURAS MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 82.0W...NEAR CAYMAN ISLANDS MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 95.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART $$ ** WTPN21 PGTW 171930 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFORCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/171921ZMAY2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162221Z MAY 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 162230)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N1 127.2E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N6 126.4E3, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTHEAST OF TANDAG, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY IN- DICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DECOUPLED, AND THE REMNANT CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIM- ATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF- ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR. THIS CANCELS REF A.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 172035 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT...25 KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB... AND AFWA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS FORMED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. IN ADDITION TO SATELLITE DATA... SHIP PFSK LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1006.4 MB... ALONG WITH 14 FT SEAS THAT CORRESPOND TO 25-30 KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/4. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE GFDL MODEL...INDICATE AN ATYPICAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SINCE 1966... ONLY FOUR SYSTEMS HAVE MADE LANDALL IN GUATEMALA OR EL SALVADOR IN ANY MONTH... WITH ONLY ONE LANDFALLING DEPRESSION IN THE MONTH OF MAY. HOWEVER... NO TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MADE LANDFALL THIS EARLY IN MAY. WHILE NOT CLIMATOLOGICAL... ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL COULD OCCUR ALONG THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR COASTS IN 2-3 DAYS. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA... IT COULD EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH IS PRODUCING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO 55 KT IN 48 HOURS... BUT THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE UNUSUAL EASTWARD MOTION WHICH GENERALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 115 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL... AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 9.9N 95.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 10.2N 94.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 10.7N 93.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 92.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 12.7N 91.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.0N 87.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 20.0N 82.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 74.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/171351Z MAY 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z7 --- NEAR 9.8N7 95.2W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N7 95.2W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 10.2N3 94.3W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 10.7N8 93.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 11.5N7 92.4W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 12.7N0 91.2W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 16.0N7 87.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 20.0N2 82.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 23.0N5 74.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 172200Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.9N8 94.9W2. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPER- SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 171351Z MAY 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 171400). NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z3, 181000Z0, 181600Z6 AND 182200Z3. ** WTPN31 PHNC 172200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/171351Z MAY 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z7 --- NEAR 9.8N7 95.2W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N7 95.2W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 10.2N3 94.3W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 10.7N8 93.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 11.5N7 92.4W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 172200 RRB *** 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 12.7N0 91.2W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 16.0N7 87.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 20.0N2 82.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 23.0N5 74.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 172200Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.9N8 94.9W2. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPER- SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 171351Z MAY 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 171400). NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z3, 181000Z0, 181600Z6 AND 182200Z3.