** WTPN21 PGTW 152230 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFORCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/152221ZMAY2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N7 128.7E8 TO 10.5N6 124.6E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 151730Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N0 128.0E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.2N0 127.5E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N0 128.0E1, APPROX-
IMATELY 100 NM EAST OF TANDAG, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS SHOWS THAT THE
850 MB VORTICITY IS INCREASING AND A 150905Z0 QUIKSCT PASS CONFIRMS
THE EXISTENCE AND POSITION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO MOSTLY LINEAR FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162230Z4.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 125.0N8 2.9E1
//