** WTIN20 DEMS 270632 ***

               TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
   --------------------------------
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI  27-04-2005 (.) 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE 
BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 
HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.)
 
WINDS AT 200 HPA ARE SOUTH WESTERLIES OVER INDIAN  REGION (.)





** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS SONCA 0503 (0503) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC
00HR 26.7N 145.7E 985HPA 25M/S
30KTS 330KM
50KTS 70KM
P12HR NE 60KM/H
P+24HR 30.5N 159.5E 995HPA 20M/S=


** WTJP21 RJTD 270600 ***
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0503 SONCA (0503) 985 HPA
AT 26.7N 145.6E EAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 29 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 29.2N 157.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


** WTPQ20 RJTD 270600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  STS 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  270600UTC 26.7N 145.6E FAIR
MOVE  ENE 29KT
PRES  985HPA
MXWD  050KT
30KT  180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  280600UTC 29.2N 157.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


** WTPQ30 RJTD 270600  ***

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 0503 SONCA (0503)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
  POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
  POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS FAIR.
  STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED.
  STS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO EAS
T.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS.
  STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN LOW SST AR
EA
 AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE CE
NTER.
  STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
5.REMARKS
  THIS IS FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING ON STS 0503 SONCA (0503).=


** WTPQ20 RJTD 270900 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  STS 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  270900UTC 27.3N 147.7E FAIR
MOVE  ENE 34KT
PRES  985HPA
MXWD  050KT
30KT  180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  280900UTC 29.0N 159.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


** WTJP31 RJTD 270900 ***
WARNING 270900.
WARNING VALID 280900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0503 SONCA (0503) 985 HPA
AT 27.3N 147.7E EAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 34 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 29.0N 159.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=