** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN21 PGTW 180030 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/180021ZAPR05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 6.1N7 139.9E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 172330Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7 139.9E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7 139.7E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7 139.7E0, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, MICRONESIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190030Z3.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 180600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-04-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AAA WINDS AT 200 HPA ARE WESTERLIES OVER INDIAN REGION AAA