** WTIN20 DEMS 140605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 14-04-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200HPA RUNS ALONG 14 DEG NORTH IN THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTIO22 FMEE 140608 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 036/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 (EX-JULIET) 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3S / 77.3E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/14 AT 18 UTC: 30.0S / 79.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DISSIPATING. 24H, VALID 2005/04/15 AT 06 UTC: 30.4S / 80.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEME EX-JULIET KEEPS ON WEAKENING, WITH STRONG WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTRE. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS FILLING UP GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 140608 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/18/20042005 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 (EX-JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/14 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3S / 77.3E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 300 SO: 400 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/14 18 UTC: 30.0S/79.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 24H: 2005/04/15 06 UTC: 30.4S/80.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2005/04/15 18 UTC: 30.8S/81.7E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM EX-JULIET SHOWS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH WITH STRONG WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTRE. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, FILLING UP GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 140608 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/18/20042005 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 (EX-JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/14 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3S / 77.3E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 300 SO: 400 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/14 18 UTC: 30.0S/79.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 24H: 2005/04/15 06 UTC: 30.4S/80.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2005/04/15 18 UTC: 30.8S/81.7E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM EX-JULIET SHOWS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH WITH STRONG WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTRE. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, FILLING UP GRADUALLY. ** WTIO22 FMEE 140608 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 036/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 (EX-JULIET) 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3S / 77.3E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/14 AT 18 UTC: 30.0S / 79.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DISSIPATING. 24H, VALID 2005/04/15 AT 06 UTC: 30.4S / 80.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEME EX-JULIET KEEPS ON WEAKENING, WITH STRONG WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTRE. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS FILLING UP GRADUALLY. ** WTIO21 FMEE 140608 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 14/04/2005 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 036/18 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 14/04/2005 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE 18 (EX-JULIET) 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.3S / 77.3E (VINGT-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 500 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE CADRAN SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE , S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 14/04/2005 A 18 UTC: 30.0S / 79.1E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, SE DISSIPANT. A 24H POUR LE 15/04/2005 A 06 UTC: 30.4S / 80.6E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, SE DISSIPANT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME EX-JULIET EST EN VOIE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVEC DES VENTS FORTS LOIN DU CENTRE. IL EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST EN SE COMBLANT PROGRESSIVEMENT.