** WTIO22 FMEE 111807 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 11/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 968 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2S / 64.4E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 40 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/12 AT 06 UTC: 27.0S / 66.0E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2005/04/12 AT 18 UTC: 28.7S / 67.7E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: JULIET IS NOW ENDING ITS PARABOLIC TRACK, CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. UNDERGOING UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS GETTING DISORGANIZED RATHER QUICKLY. JULIET IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, SPEEDING UP, AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 111808 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/18/20042005 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/11 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2S / 64.4E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.5 /W 2.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 968 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 330 SO: 330 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/12 06 UTC: 27.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2005/04/12 18 UTC: 28.7S/67.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2005/04/13 06 UTC: 30.9S/70.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2005/04/13 18 UTC: 32.0S/74.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2005/04/14 06 UTC: 33.0S/79.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2005/04/14 18 UTC: 34.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 ; CI=4.5- JULIET IS NOW ENDING ITS PARABOLIC TRACK, CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. UNDERGOING A RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR , THE SYSTEM IS GETTING DISORGANIZED RATHER QUICKLY AND IS STARTING THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ; JULIET IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, SPEEDING UP, AND WEAKENI NG GRADUALLY.= ** WTXS32 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- NEAR 25.3S0 63.2E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 63.2E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 26.7S5 63.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 28.5S5 66.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 25.7S4 63.3E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE-JULIET), LOCATED APPROX- IMATELY 450 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. AN 111642Z5 SSM/I IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION DE-COUPLED SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITH COLD, DRY AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2.//