** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 111209 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 11/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 025/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 955 HPA POSITION: 24.2S / 63.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 50 MN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/12 AT 00 UTC: 26.6S / 64.4E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2005/04/12 AT 12 UTC: 28.4S / 66.7E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS CURVED SOUTHWARDS. IT IS WEAKENING AND DISORGANIZING RAPIDLY. IT SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS AND BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 111216 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/18/20042005 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/11 AT 1200 UTC : 24.2S / 63.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/5.0 MOINS /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 280 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 750 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/12 00 UTC: 26.6S/64.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2005/04/12 12 UTC: 28.4S/66.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2005/04/13 00 UTC: 29.9S/70.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2005/04/13 12 UTC: 30.9S/74.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2005/04/14 00 UTC: 30.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2005/04/14 12 UTC: 32.8S/83.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 ; CI=5.0- EYE AS DISEPPEARED, CONVECTION IS BECOMMING WARMER AND IS DISORGANIZING RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARDS, WEAKENING UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST, INTRUSION OF DRY AND COOL AIR BY THE NORTHWEST).= ** WTIO30 FMEE 111230 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/18/20042005 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/11 AT 1200 UTC : 24.2S / 63.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/5.0 MOINS /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 280 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 750 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/12 00 UTC: 26.6S/64.4E, MAX WIND=065KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2005/04/12 12 UTC: 28.4S/66.7E, MAX WIND=060KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2005/04/13 00 UTC: 29.9S/70.4E, MAX WIND=055KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2005/04/13 12 UTC: 30.9S/74.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2005/04/14 00 UTC: 31.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2005/04/14 12 UTC: 32.8S/83.1E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 ; CI=5.0- EYE AS DISEPPEARED, CONVECTION IS BECOMMING WARMER AND IS DISORGANIZING RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARDS, WEAKENING UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, COOLER SST, INTRUSION OF DRY AND COOL AIR BY THE NORTHWEST).=