** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=


** WTIO20 FMEE 110014 ***
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 11/04/2005
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY    11/04/2005 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 925 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 63.5E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
 TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN
35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 MN IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM
RADIUS
 FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE  SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE
.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM
RADIUS
 FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100
NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/04/11 AT 12 UTC:
24.0S / 63.0E, MAX WIND = 90 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/04/12 AT 00 UTC:
26.3S / 63.7E, MAX WIND = 80 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS NOW  TO WEAK.
THE CENTRE OF JULIET IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS
 WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEN,  JULIET IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARDS
.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING GRADUALLY.=


** WTIO30 FMEE 110023 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 23/18/20042005
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18  (JULIET)

2.A POSITION 2005/04/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 63.5E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.5/6.0 /W  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 250   SE: 350   SO: 350   NO: 180
50 KT       NE: 180   SE: 180   SO: 110   NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/04/11 12 UTC: 24.0S/63.0E, MAX WIND=090KT.
24H: 2005/04/12 00 UTC: 26.3S/63.7E, MAX WIND=080KT.
36H: 2005/04/12 12 UTC: 28.3S/65.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/04/13 00 UTC: 29.5S/68.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/04/13 12 UTC: 30.1S/72.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/04/14 00 UTC: 30.4S/76.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5 ; CI=6.0+
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT JULIET IS NOW
CONSTRAINTED BY A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ACCORDING TO THE
DIFFERENCE OF THE CENTER POSITION IN TRMM OF 2048 BETWEEN 37GHZ AND
85GHZ
 CHANNELS).
EXCEPT ECMWF, AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND MAINTAIN
A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARDS, WEAKENING SLOWLY
UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND
COOLER SST).=