** WTIO20 FMEE 101808 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 10/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 923 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 63.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 MN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE . GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/11 AT 06 UTC: 23.1S / 62.8E, MAX WIND = 95 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/11 AT 18 UTC: 24.9S / 62.6E, MAX WIND = 85 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS NOW TO WEAK. THE CENTRE OF JULIET IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR 24 HOURS. THEN, JULIET IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 101813 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/10 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 63.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 923 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/11 06 UTC: 23.1S/62.8E, MAX WIND=095KT. 24H: 2005/04/11 18 UTC: 24.9S/62.6E, MAX WIND=085KT. 36H: 2005/04/12 06 UTC: 26.8S/63.7E, MAX WIND=075KT. 48H: 2005/04/12 18 UTC: 28.5S/66.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2005/04/13 06 UTC: 30.1S/69.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2005/04/13 18 UTC: 31.1S/73.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5+ ; CI=6.0+ JULIET IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 KM SOUTH OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THE SYSTEM INTENSITY BEGIN TO WEAK. EXCEPT ECMWF, AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND MAINTAIN A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK FOR 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARDS, WEAKENING SLOWLY UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SST).= ** WTXS32 PGTW 102100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE-JULIET) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z0 --- NEAR 21.5S8 63.8E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 63.8E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 23.2S7 63.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 25.5S2 63.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 28.0S0 64.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 29.7S8 67.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 63.6E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE-JULIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 26S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. A 101658Z1 SSMI IMAGE INDICATES TC 26S IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER, DRY AIR. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5.//