** WTSR20 WSSS 100600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 101211 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 10/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 915 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 64.3E (TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 MN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE . GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/11 AT 00 UTC: 22.2S / 63.0E, MAX WIND = 105 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/11 AT 12 UTC: 24.0S / 62.3E, MAX WIND = 95 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS NOW STABILIZED. THE CENTRE OF JULIET IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEN, JULIET IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, WEAKENING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 101212 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/10 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 64.3E (TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 100 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/11 00 UTC: 22.2S/63.0E, MAX WIND=105KT. 24H: 2005/04/11 12 UTC: 24.0S/62.3E, MAX WIND=095KT. 36H: 2005/04/12 00 UTC: 26.0S/63.0E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2005/04/12 12 UTC: 28.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2005/04/13 00 UTC: 29.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2005/04/13 12 UTC: 30.8S/70.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0 ; CI=6.5 JULIET IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 140 KM SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS NOW STABILIZED. EXCEPT ECMWF, AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARDS, WEAKENING SLOWLY UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SST).= ** WTIO20 FMEE 101211 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 10/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 915 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 64.3E (TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 MN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE .. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/11 AT 00 UTC: 22.2S / 63.0E, MAX WIND = 105 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/11 AT 12 UTC: 24.0S / 62.3E, MAX WIND = 95 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS NOW STABILIZED. THE CENTRE OF JULIET IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEN, JULIET IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, WEAKENING GRADUALLY.