** WTIO20 FMEE 100614 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 10/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 910 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8S / 65.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 MN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE .. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/10 AT 18 UTC: 20.5S / 63.2E, MAX WIND = 110 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/11 AT 06 UTC: 22.0S / 61.8E, MAX WIND = 110 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS NOW STABILIZED ; THE CENTRE OF JULIET IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IN THE VICINITY OF ROGRIGUES ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS SHORTLY, AND THEN TO TRACK AND EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS WEAKENING SLOW LY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 100614 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 10/04/2005 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 020/18 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 10/04/2005 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 18 (JULIET) 910 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8S / 65.0E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. OURAGAN 65/115 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 60 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 180 MN DU CENTRE DANS QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE , S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 10/04/2005 A 18 UTC: 20.5S / 63.2E, VENT MAX = 110 KT. A 24H POUR LE 11/04/2005 A 06 UTC: 22.0S / 61.8E, VENT MAX = 110 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME JULIET SEMBLE MAINTENANT STABILISEE. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST ET PASSER AU SUD-EST DE RODRIGUES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. CE SYSTEME EST ENSUITE PREVU RECOURBER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS S'EVACUER EN FAIBLISSANT PROGRESS IVEMENT D'ICI 36 A 48 HEURES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 100614 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 10/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 910 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8S / 65.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 MN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE . GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/10 AT 18 UTC: 20.5S / 63.2E, MAX WIND = 110 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/11 AT 06 UTC: 22.0S / 61.8E, MAX WIND = 110 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS NOW STABILIZED ; THE CENTRE OF JULIET IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IN THE VICINITY OF ROGRIGUES ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS SHORTLY, AND THEN TO TRACK AND EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS WEAKENING SLOW LY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 100618 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/10 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8S / 65.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 910 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 115 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 100 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/10 18 UTC: 20.5S/63.2E, MAX WIND=110KT. 24H: 2005/04/11 06 UTC: 22.0S/61.8E, MAX WIND=110KT. 36H: 2005/04/11 18 UTC: 23.8S/61.3E, MAX WIND=100KT. 48H: 2005/04/12 06 UTC: 25.3S/61.8E, MAX WIND=080KT. 60H: 2005/04/12 18 UTC: 27.7S/63.1E, MAX WIND=070KT. 72H: 2005/04/13 06 UTC: 30.2S/65.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0 ; CI=6.5+ THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS NOW STABILIZED ; THE CENTRE OF JULIET IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IN THE VICINITY OF ROGRIGUES ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARDS SHORTLY, AND THEN TO TRACK AND EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS AT MEDIUM RANGE, WEAKENING SLOWLY UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SST).= ** WTIN20 DEMS 100740 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 10-04-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13 DEG. NORTH IN THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTXS32 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE-JULIET) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z7 --- NEAR 19.7S7 65.0E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 65.0E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 21.3S6 63.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 23.1S6 62.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 25.3S0 63.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 27.6S5 64.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 64.6E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE-JULIET), LOCATED APPROX- IMATELY 425 NM EAST OF MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREAS- ING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1.//