** WTIO20 FMEE 091806 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 09/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 910 HPA POSITION: 18.4S / 67.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE . STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/10 AT 06 UTC: 19.6S / 64.9E, MAX WIND = 120 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/10 AT 18 UTC: 20.9S / 62.9E, MAX WIND = 115 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTEDRAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF RODRIGUES ISLAND ON SUNDAY 05/04/10 BETWEEN 1200UTC AND 1800 UTC , AND THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO EVACUATE IN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 091807 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/09 AT 1800 UTC : 18.4S / 67.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 910 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 115 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 110 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/10 06 UTC: 19.6S/64.9E, MAX WIND=120KT. 24H: 2005/04/10 18 UTC: 20.9S/62.9E, MAX WIND=115KT. 36H: 2005/04/11 06 UTC: 22.4S/61.8E, MAX WIND=100KT. 48H: 2005/04/11 18 UTC: 24.0S/61.3E, MAX WIND=085KT. 60H: 2005/04/12 06 UTC: 26.2S/61.4E, MAX WIND=065KT. 72H: 2005/04/12 18 UTC: 28.1S/62.4E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED RAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF RODRIGUES ISLAND ON SUNDAY 05/04/10 BETWEEN 1200UTC AND 1800 UTC , AND THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO EVACUATE IN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.(NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COLDER SST).= ** WTXS32 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE-JULIET) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z8 --- NEAR 18.4S3 67.3E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 67.3E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 19.7S7 65.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 21.3S6 63.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 23.0S5 63.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 25.0S7 62.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 66.7E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE-JULIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 26S HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNING IS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//