** WTSR20 WSSS 090600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 091225 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 09/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 915 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 68.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE . STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/10 AT 00 UTC: 19.0S / 65.9E, MAX WIND = 120 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/10 AT 12 UTC: 20.0S / 64.0E, MAX WIND = 110 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT. EYE PRESENTS NOW A CIRCULAR BUT RAGGED ASPECT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOM SYMETRIC AND HAS COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE EYE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE. CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTEDRAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF RODRIGUES ISLAND ON SUNDAY 05/04/10 BETWEEN 1200UTC AND 1800 UTC (CPA ABOUT 30 NM). AND THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO EVACUATE IN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 091229 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/09 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 68.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/10 00 UTC: 19.0S/65.9E, MAX WIND=120KT. 24H: 2005/04/10 12 UTC: 20.0S/64.0E, MAX WIND=110KT. 36H: 2005/04/11 00 UTC: 21.1S/62.7E, MAX WIND=100KT. 48H: 2005/04/11 12 UTC: 22.4S/61.3E, MAX WIND=080KT. 60H: 2005/04/12 00 UTC: 24.1S/60.9E, MAX WIND=060KT. 72H: 2005/04/12 12 UTC: 25.6S/60.8E, MAX WIND=060KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 INFRARED : E=6 EA=0.5 BF=0 VISIBLE : E=6 EA=-1 BF=+1.5 THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT. EYE PRESENTS NOW A CIRCULAR BUT RAGGED ASPECT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOM SYMETRIC AND HAS COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE EYE. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR (25/30KT) IS IN THE SAME DIRECTION THAN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, THAT REDUCE IT'S INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ALSO FAVORABLE WITH GOOD MONSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOWS AND SST ABOUT 27/28. EQUATORWARDS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SEEMS TO BE BETTER THAN THE POLARWARDS DUE TO A MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG EASTERLY HIGH TROPOSHERIC WINDS. CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF RODRIGUES ISLAND ON SUNDAY 05/04/10 BETWEEN 1200UTC AND 1800 UTC (CPA ABOUT 30 NM). AND THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO EVACUATE IN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COLDER SST).=