** WTIN20 DEMS 090615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 09-04-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14 DEG NORTH IN THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTIO20 FMEE 090616 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 09/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 16/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 915 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3S / 69.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT . STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/09 AT 18 UTC: 18.1S / 67.5E, MAX WIND = 115 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/10 AT 06 UTC: 19.3S / 65.3E, MAX WIND = 120 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED. MORE REGULAR EYE EXISTS AND DEEP CONVECTION IS SYMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER . THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND STILL BENEFITS OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 090619 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/09 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3S / 69.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/09 18 UTC: 18.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=115KT. 24H: 2005/04/10 06 UTC: 19.3S/65.3E, MAX WIND=120KT. 36H: 2005/04/10 18 UTC: 20.8S/63.5E, MAX WIND=115KT. 48H: 2005/04/11 06 UTC: 22.0S/62.4E, MAX WIND=100KT. 60H: 2005/04/11 18 UTC: 24.0S/61.3E, MAX WIND=080KT. 72H: 2005/04/12 06 UTC: 26.0S/61.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 (DVORAK ANALISYS IN THE VISBLE AND INFRARED CHANNELS) EYE HAS BECOME WARMER (19.6AoC ON 0530UTC INDOEX SATELLITE IMAGERY) AND PRESENTS NOW A MORE REGULAR ASPECT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME COLDER AND SYMETRIC, AND HAS COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE EYE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH COLDER SST. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 090619 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/09 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3S / 69.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/09 18 UTC: 18.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=115KT. 24H: 2005/04/10 06 UTC: 19.3S/65.3E, MAX WIND=120KT. 36H: 2005/04/10 18 UTC: 20.8S/63.5E, MAX WIND=115KT. 48H: 2005/04/11 06 UTC: 22.0S/62.4E, MAX WIND=100KT. 60H: 2005/04/11 18 UTC: 24.0S/61.3E, MAX WIND=080KT. 72H: 2005/04/12 06 UTC: 26.0S/61.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 (DVORAK ANALISYS IN THE VISBLE AND INFRARED CHANNELS) EYE HAS BECOME WARMER (19.6AOC ON 0530UTC INDOEX SATELLITE IMAGERY) AND PRESENTS NOW A MORE REGULAR ASPECT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME COLDER AND SYMETRIC, AND HAS COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE EYE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH COLDER SST.= ** WTXS32 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE-JULIET) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z5 --- NEAR 17.2S0 70.1E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 70.1E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 18.3S2 67.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 19.6S6 65.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 21.1S4 63.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 22.5S9 63.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 69.4E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE-JULIET), LOCATED APPROX- IMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 26S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//