** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=


** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=


** WTIO20 FMEE 090008 ***
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 09/04/2005
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY  09/04/2005 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 935 HPA
POSITION:           16.7S / 71.6E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN 15
 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM
RADIUS
 FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM
RADIUS
 FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120
NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/04/09 AT 12 UTC:
17.5S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = 95 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/04/10 AT 00 UTC:
18.5S / 66.1E, MAX WIND = 85 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED THANKS TO SAT
DATA.
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND STILL BENEFITS OF A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 36
HOURS.=


** WTIO30 FMEE 090018 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 15/18/20042005
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18  (JULIET)

2.A POSITION 2005/04/09 AT 0000 UTC :
16.7S / 71.6E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.5/5.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 220   SE: 350   SO: 220   NO: 200
50 KT       NE: 100   SE: 130   SO: 050   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/04/09 12 UTC: 17.5S/68.5E, MAX WIND=095KT.
24H: 2005/04/10 00 UTC: 18.5S/66.1E, MAX WIND=085KT.
36H: 2005/04/10 12 UTC: 20.0S/64.0E, MAX WIND=080KT.
48H: 2005/04/11 00 UTC: 21.5S/62.5E, MAX WIND=070KT.
60H: 2005/04/11 12 UTC: 23.2S/61.6E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2005/04/12 00 UTC: 25.2S/61.0E, MAX WIND=055KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+, CI=5.5+
EYE HAS BECOME WARMER BUT IS RAGGED.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME COLDER, AND HAS COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND
THE
EYE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 36 HOURS AND THEN
TOWARDS A
 LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH COLDER SSTS.=