** WTIO20 FMEE 081820 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 945 HPA POSITION: 16.5S / 73.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/09 AT 06 UTC: 17.4S / 70.2E, MAX WIND = 90 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/09 AT 18 UTC: 18.3S / 67.7E, MAX WIND = 80 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING, BUT REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED THANKS TO SAT DATA. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND STILL BENEFITS OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 081821 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/18/20042005 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/08 AT 1800 UTC : 16.5S / 73.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/09 06 UTC: 17.4S/70.2E, MAX WIND=090KT. 24H: 2005/04/09 18 UTC: 18.3S/67.7E, MAX WIND=080KT. 36H: 2005/04/10 06 UTC: 19.4S/65.5E, MAX WIND=075KT. 48H: 2005/04/10 18 UTC: 20.6S/63.7E, MAX WIND=070KT. 60H: 2005/04/11 06 UTC: 22.0S/62.2E, MAX WIND=065KT. 72H: 2005/04/11 18 UTC: 23.6S/61.2E, MAX WIND=060KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5-, CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING. A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTED TO WRAP AROUND OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND HAS PERFORMED OVER THE LAST IMAGES. EYE IS CLEARLY DEFINED.= ** WTXS32 PGTW 082100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE-JULIET) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 73.4E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 73.4E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 17.4S2 70.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 18.5S4 67.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 19.9S9 65.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 21.5S8 64.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 72.7E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE-JULIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 26S IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATELY HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT ALSO INCREASE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN EYE HAS REDEVELOPED AND TC 26S HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN MORE POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//