** WTIO20 FMEE 080616 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 08/04/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 950 HPA POSITION: 15.1S / 76.6E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTEDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 18 UTC: 15.8S / 73.8E, MAX WIND = 90 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/09 AT 06 UTC: 16.6S / 70.5E, MAX WIND = 90 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LATEST MICRO-ONDE DATA REVEAL A RE-BUILDING EYE AS JULIET REINTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKINGRAPIDLY MAINLY WESTWARDS, THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 080616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/18/20042005 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/08 AT 0600 UTC : 15.1S / 76.6E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 080 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/08 18 UTC: 15.8S/73.8E, MAX WIND=090KT. 24H: 2005/04/09 06 UTC: 16.6S/70.5E, MAX WIND=090KT. 36H: 2005/04/09 18 UTC: 17.5S/67.7E, MAX WIND=085KT. 48H: 2005/04/10 06 UTC: 18.4S/65.0E, MAX WIND=080KT. 60H: 2005/04/10 18 UTC: 19.5S/62.5E, MAX WIND=075KT. 72H: 2005/04/11 06 UTC: 20.6S/60.2E, MAX WIND=070KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+ THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS A CDO PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY, BUT LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH A REBUILDING EYE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS RATHER QUICKLY, IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS SHORTLY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 080710 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 08-04-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROUGH OF LOW AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCATION WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13 DEG NORTH IN THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTXS32 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z4 --- NEAR 15.3S9 76.9E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 76.9E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 16.1S8 73.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 17.1S9 71.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 18.5S4 68.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 20.1S3 65.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 76.1E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE-JULIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//