** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=


** WTIO20 FMEE 080010 ***
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/04/2005
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY    08/04/2005 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 950 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 78.4E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
 EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTEDING
UP
TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN 10
 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM
RADIUS
 FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM
RADIUS
 FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 12 UTC:
15.6S / 75.3E, MAX WIND = 85 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/04/09 AT 00 UTC:
16.5S / 72.6E, MAX WIND = 85 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL THE SYSTEM JULIET RE-ORGANIZED AROUND
ITS
 CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS BUT IS EXPECTED
TO
SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS SHORTLY.=


** WTIO30 FMEE 080010 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 11/18/20042005
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 18  (JULIET)

2.A POSITION 2005/04/08 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 78.4E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.0 /D  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 220   SO: 220   NO: 150
50 KT       NE: 090   SE: 110   SO: 110   NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/04/08 12 UTC: 15.6S/75.3E, MAX WIND=085KT.
24H: 2005/04/09 00 UTC: 16.5S/72.6E, MAX WIND=085KT.
36H: 2005/04/09 12 UTC: 17.6S/69.8E, MAX WIND=080KT.
48H: 2005/04/10 00 UTC: 19.3S/67.4E, MAX WIND=075KT.
60H: 2005/04/10 12 UTC: 21.5S/65.5E, MAX WIND=075KT.
72H: 2005/04/11 00 UTC: 24.1S/64.1E, MAX WIND=075KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS A CDO PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY, BUT LATEST
MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS A BETTER ORGANIZATION AND A CONSOLIDATION OF THE
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING MAINLY
WESTWARDS
 RATHER QUICKLY, IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WEST
-SOUTHWESTWARDS
SHORTLY.=