** WTIO20 FMEE 071803 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 955 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 80.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTEDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 06 UTC: 16.0S / 77.3E, MAX WIND = 70 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 18 UTC: 16.9S / 73.8E, MAX WIND = 70 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: JULIET IS A RATHER SMALL SYSTEM (500 TO 600 KM DIAMETER), THE INTENSITY SEEMS NOW STABILIZED. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER QUICKLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 071803 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/18/20042005 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/07 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 80.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/08 06 UTC: 16.0S/77.3E, MAX WIND=070KT. 24H: 2005/04/08 18 UTC: 16.9S/73.8E, MAX WIND=070KT. 36H: 2005/04/09 06 UTC: 17.8S/71.1E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2005/04/09 18 UTC: 18.8S/68.8E, MAX WIND=075KT. 60H: 2005/04/10 06 UTC: 20.2S/66.8E, MAX WIND=070KT. 72H: 2005/04/10 18 UTC: 22.3S/65.4E, MAX WIND=060KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ; CI=5.0 THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN A CDO PATTERN FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS ; ACCORDING TO LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY, CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ; EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE, BUT REDUCED BY THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AREEMENT FOR THE FORECASTED TRACK.= ** WTXS32 PGTW 072100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z6 --- NEAR 15.0S6 80.2E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 80.2E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 15.8S4 77.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 16.9S6 73.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 18.3S2 70.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 20.1S3 68.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 79.4E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE-JULIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPI- CAL STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, TC 26S SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING MORE POLEWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.// BT #0001