** WTSR20 WSSS 070600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 071212 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 945 HPA POSITION: 14.6S / 81.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTEDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 00 UTC: 15.4S / 78.3E, MAX WIND = 80 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 12 UTC: 16.4S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EYE HAS DISAPPEARED ON THE SAT IMAGERY OVER LAST NIGHT. JULIET KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER QUICKLY, AND SHOULD MAINTAINS THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 071213 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/18/20042005 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/07 AT 1200 UTC : 14.6S / 81.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/08 00 UTC: 15.4S/78.3E, MAX WIND=080KT. 24H: 2005/04/08 12 UTC: 16.4S/75.8E, MAX WIND=080KT. 36H: 2005/04/09 00 UTC: 17.4S/73.0E, MAX WIND=075KT. 48H: 2005/04/09 12 UTC: 18.2S/70.3E, MAX WIND=070KT. 60H: 2005/04/10 00 UTC: 19.4S/67.8E, MAX WIND=060KT. 72H: 2005/04/10 12 UTC: 21.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=055KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0-, CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM SHOWS A CDO PATTERN ON SAT IMAGERY, BUT EYE IS STILL CLEAR ON THE MW SSMI AT 0330Z. ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE, AND THE SYSTEM IS OVER AN AREA OF POSITIVE SSTS ANOMALY. NWP ARE IN GOOD AREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH A RATHER QUICK SPEED.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 071212 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 07/04/2005 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 009/18 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 07/04/2005 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 18 (JULIET) 945 HPA POSITION: 14.6S / 81.0E (QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES ZERO EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 15 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 220 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 90 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE , S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 08/04/2005 A 00 UTC: 15.4S / 78.3E, VENT MAX = 80 KT. A 24H POUR LE 08/04/2005 A 12 UTC: 16.4S / 75.8E, VENT MAX = 80 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'OEIL A DISPARU SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES AU COURS DE LA NUIT. JULIET POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST ASSEZ RAPIDE, ET DEVRAIT LA MAINTENIR POUR LES TROIS PROCHAINS JOURS. ** WTIO20 FMEE 071212 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 945 HPA POSITION: 14.6S / 81.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTEDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 00 UTC: 15.4S / 78.3E, MAX WIND = 80 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 12 UTC: 16.4S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EYE HAS DISAPPEARED ON THE SAT IMAGERY OVER LAST NIGHT. JULIET KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER QUICKLY, AND SHOULD MAINTAINS THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ** WTIO30 FMEE 071213 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/18/20042005 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/07 AT 1200 UTC : 14.6S / 81.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/08 00 UTC: 15.4S/78.3E, MAX WIND=080KT. 24H: 2005/04/08 12 UTC: 16.4S/75.8E, MAX WIND=080KT. 36H: 2005/04/09 00 UTC: 17.4S/73.0E, MAX WIND=075KT. 48H: 2005/04/09 12 UTC: 18.2S/70.3E, MAX WIND=070KT. 60H: 2005/04/10 00 UTC: 19.4S/67.8E, MAX WIND=060KT. 72H: 2005/04/10 12 UTC: 21.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=055KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0-, CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM SHOWS A CDO PATTERN ON SAT IMAGERY, BUT EYE IS STILL CLEAR ON THE MW SSMI AT 0330Z. ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE, AND THE SYSTEM IS OVER AN AREA OF POSITIVE SSTS ANOMALY. NWP ARE IN GOOD AREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH A RATHER QUICK SPEED.