** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 070024 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/04/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 7/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/04/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET EX-ADELINE) 930 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3S / 83.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTEDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTWESTERN, SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 12 UTC: 14.9S / 81.4E, MAX WIND = 95 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 00 UTC: 15.8S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 90 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, JULIET EX-ADELINE STOPPED INTENSIFYING. IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, UNDERGOING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 070028 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/04/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 31/17 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 07/04/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 17 (EX-ISANG) 975 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8S / 69.1E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 19 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FROCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 MN RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 12 UTC: 32.6S / 69.9E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2005/04/08 AT 00 UTC: 34.6S / 70.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ISANG HAS REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY YESTERDAY MORNING AND HAS PROBABLY REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DURING A SHORT TIME. SYSTEM IS NOW CONSTRAINTED BY A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. AND IS NOW EXTRA-TROPICAL. MAXIMUM WINDS AREA IS EXTENDING VERY FAR FROM THE CENTRE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT AND TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 070030 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET EX-ADELINE) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3S / 83.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/07 12 UTC: 14.9S/81.4E, MAX WIND=095KT. 24H: 2005/04/08 00 UTC: 15.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=090KT. 36H: 2005/04/08 12 UTC: 16.4S/76.4E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2005/04/09 00 UTC: 17.0S/73.9E, MAX WIND=080KT. 60H: 2005/04/09 12 UTC: 17.8S/71.5E, MAX WIND=080KT. 72H: 2005/04/10 00 UTC: 18.7S/69.0E, MAX WIND=075KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 , CI=6.0 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM STOPPED ITS INTENSIFICATION : THE EYE IS NOT ALWAYS VISBLE AND ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED. NEVERTHELESS, ON ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GOOD ENVIRONMENT, FAVORABLE FOR A NEW POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION, NOT FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 070032 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/17/20042005 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 17 (EX-ISANG) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8S / 69.1E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 900 SO: 800 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 220 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 055 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/07 12 UTC: 32.6S/69.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2005/04/08 00 UTC: 34.6S/70.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2005/04/08 12 UTC: 36.0S/72.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2005/04/09 00 UTC: 37.0S/74.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2005/04/09 12 UTC: 37.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2005/04/10 00 UTC: 38.4S/78.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: ISANG HAS REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY YESTERDAY MORNING AND HAS PROBABLY REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DURING A SHORT TIME. SYSTEM IS NOW CONSTRAINTED BY A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. AND IS NOW EXTRA-TROPICAL. MAXIMUM WINDS AREA IS EXTENDING VERY FAR FROM THE CENTRE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT AND TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 070600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 07-04-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL PERSISTS (.) ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABOVE SYSTEMS(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14 DEG. NORTH IN THE INDIAN REGION (.)