** WTIO20 FMEE 061831 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET EX-ADELINE) 930 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 85.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTEDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTWESTERN, SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 06 UTC: 14.0S / 83.6E, MAX WIND = 100 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 18 UTC: 14.8S / 80.8E, MAX WIND = 95 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, JULIET EX-ADELINE STOPPED INTENSIFYING. IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, UNDERGOING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 061857 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 030/17 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/04/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 17 (ISANG) 975 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.6S / 67.6E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FROCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 MN RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 600 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 06 UTC: 28.9S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 18 UTC: 31.7S / 69.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ISANG HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY THIS MORNING AND HAS PROBABLY REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DURING A SHORT TIME. SYSTEM IS NOW CONSTRAINTED BY A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOM EXTRA-TROPICAL SHORTLY. MAXIMUM WINDS AREA IS EXTENDING VERY FAR FROM THE CENTRE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT AND TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 061902 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET EX-ADELINE) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/06 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 85.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/07 06 UTC: 14.0S/83.6E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/04/07 18 UTC: 14.8S/80.8E, MAX WIND=095KT. 36H: 2005/04/08 06 UTC: 15.6S/78.0E, MAX WIND=095KT. 48H: 2005/04/08 18 UTC: 16.3S/75.1E, MAX WIND=080KT. 60H: 2005/04/09 06 UTC: 17.2S/72.6E, MAX WIND=080KT. 72H: 2005/04/09 18 UTC: 18.2S/70.1E, MAX WIND=080KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 , CI=6.0 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM STOPPED ITS INTENSIFICATION : THE CENTRAL CORE IS WARMER AND ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED. NEVERTHELESS, ON ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GOOD ENVIRONMENT, FAVORABLE FOR A N EW POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION, NOT FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 061907 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/17/20042005 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 17 (ISANG) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/06 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.6S / 67.6E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 900 SO: 800 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 220 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 055 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/07 06 UTC: 28.9S/68.5E, MAX WIND=050KT. 24H: 2005/04/07 18 UTC: 31.7S/69.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2005/04/08 06 UTC: 33.6S/70.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2005/04/08 18 UTC: 35.3S/71.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2005/04/09 06 UTC: 36.8S/73.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2005/04/09 18 UTC: 37.8S/75.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.0+ ISANG HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY THIS MORNING AND HAS PROBABLY REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DURING A SHORT TIME. SYSTEM IS NOW CONSTRAINTED BY A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOM EXTRA-TROPICAL SHORTLY. MAXIMUM WINDS AREA IS EXTENDING VERY FAR FROM THE CENTRE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT AND TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (ISANG) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z5 --- NEAR 27.8S7 68.8E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S7 68.8E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 31.7S1 73.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 28.8S8 69.9E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (ISANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPID DECREASE IN CONVECTION. TC 25S SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 13 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE-JULIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// BT #0001 ** WTXS32 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (ADELINE) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z5 --- NEAR 13.5S9 85.5E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 85.5E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 14.6S1 83.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 15.8S4 80.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 16.9S6 76.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 18.1S0 73.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 84.9E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (ADELINE-JULIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 855 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 26S SHOULD TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (ISANG) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// BT #0001