** WTSR20 WSSS 060600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 061211 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/18 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET EX-ADELINE) 930 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 86.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HICH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTWESTERN, SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 00 UTC: 13.8S / 84.5E, MAX WIND = 105 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 12 UTC: 14.4S / 82.3E, MAX WIND = 100 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, JULIET EX-ADELINE STOPPED INTENSIFYING. IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, UNDERGOING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 061212 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/18/20042005 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 (JULIET EX-ADELINE) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 86.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/07 00 UTC: 13.8S/84.5E, MAX WIND=105KT. 24H: 2005/04/07 12 UTC: 14.4S/82.3E, MAX WIND=100KT. 36H: 2005/04/08 00 UTC: 15.3S/79.3E, MAX WIND=105KT. 48H: 2005/04/08 12 UTC: 16.0S/76.5E, MAX WIND=090KT. 60H: 2005/04/09 00 UTC: 16.8S/73.6E, MAX WIND=090KT. 72H: 2005/04/09 12 UTC: 17.7S/71.1E, MAX WIND=090KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ , CI=6.0 JULIET EX-ADELINE IS A SMALL SIZE MIDGET TYPE SYSTEM, TRACKING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM STOPPED ITS INTENSIFICATION : THE CENTRAL CORE IS WARMER AND ACCORDING TO TRMM IMAGERY (0620Z), CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED. NEVERTHELESS, ON ITS WEST-SOUTHW ESTWARDS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GOOD ENVIRONMENT, FAVORABLE FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 061221 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 029/17 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 06/04/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 17 (ISANG) 975 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3S / 67.0E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FROCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE . STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 00 UTC: 29.0S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/04/07 AT 12 UTC: 32.0S / 69.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, ISANG PROABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. AND IS TO UNDERGO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. ISANG IS EXPECTED TO BECOM EXTRA-TROPICAL SHORT LY ; MAXIMUM WINDS AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND GRADUALLY FAR FROM THE CENTRE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT AND TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 061222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/17/20042005 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 17 (ISANG) 2.A POSITION 2005/04/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3S / 67.0E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 350 SO: 500 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/04/07 00 UTC: 29.0S/68.5E, MAX WIND=050KT . 24H: 2005/04/07 12 UTC: 32.0S/69.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2005/04/08 00 UTC: 33.9S/70.5E EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2005/04/08 12 UTC: 35.5S/72.1E EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2005/04/09 00 UTC: 37.2S/74.6E EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2005/04/09 12 UTC: 37.0S/78.0E EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (TRMM 0620Z) REVEALS THE SYSTEM ISANG INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY (T=CI=4.0). NEVERTHELESS, ISANG PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY THIS MORNING, AND AS IT KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING STRONGER NORTHWESTERN WIND SHEAR ; ISANG IS EXPECTED TO DISORGANIZE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY. MAXIMUM WIND AREA IS NOW TO EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.=