** WTIO22 FMEE 280609 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/03/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 029/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/03/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 (EX-HENNIE) 990 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5S / 64.2E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS BETWEEN 80 NM AND 100 NM FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 MN IN WESTERN AND EASTERN SECTORS, AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN 100 NM AND 180 NM FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN EASTERN AND WESTERN SECTORS, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/03/28 AT 18 UTC: 27.5S / 64.7E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2005/03/29 AT 06 UTC: 28.9S / 64.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-HENNIE SHOWS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTRE, AND EXTENDING MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS CLEARLY DEFINED WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CLOUD MASS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280612 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/16/20042005 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 (EX-HENNIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/03/28 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5S / 64.2E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 700 SO: 600 NO: 300 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/03/28 18 UTC: 27.5S/64.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2005/03/29 06 UTC: 28.9S/64.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2005/03/29 18 UTC: 30.9S/65.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2005/03/30 06 UTC: 33.0S/65.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2005/03/30 18 UTC: 35.1S/67.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2005/03/31 06 UTC: 36.7S/70.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTRE, AND EXTEND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. WINDS ARE CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0206Z. LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CICULATION CENTRE IS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION THAT WEAKENS GRADUALLY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 280700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 28-03-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE-LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13 DEG NORTH IN THE INDIAN-REGION (.)