** WTAU10 ADRM 061304 *** BTAB YPDM 08U INGRID 050306 1200 136S 1487E 130 030 0975 1009 0300 36 030 0150 0150 0150 0150 D = ** WTPS11 NFFN 061200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 06/1341 UTC 2005 UTC. DEPRESSION 12F [997HPA] [FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9S 161.4W AT 061200 UTC. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON GOES9/10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO DECELERATE. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC RESULTING IN A DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A WRAP OF 0.2 YIELDING DT=MET=PAT=1.5; FT BASED ON DT: T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS. STRONG SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KNOTS, INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES [24-26C] HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF RAE. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION SOUTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN IT FURTHER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT RUNS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY, A LARGE AREA OF GALES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 12F AND THE RIDGE DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. ** WTPS11 NFFN 061200 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI MAR 06/1341 UTC 2005 UTC. DEPRESSION 12F [997HPA] [FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9S 161.4W AT 061200 UTC. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON GOES9/10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO DECELERATE. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC RESULTING IN A DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A WRAP OF 0.2 YIELDING DT=MET=PAT=1.5; FT BASED ON DT: T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS. STRONG SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KNOTS, INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES [24-26C] HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF RAE. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION SOUTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN IT FURTHER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT RUNS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY, A LARGE AREA OF GALES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 12F AND THE RIDGE DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. ** WTNT80 EGRR 061715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.03.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 7.0N 89.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.03.2005 7.0N 89.9W WEAK 00UTC 08.03.2005 7.2N 90.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.03.2005 7.9N 91.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.03.2005 8.1N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.03.2005 8.7N 92.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.03.2005 9.7N 92.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.03.2005 9.5N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.03.2005 9.4N 93.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.03.2005 9.5N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.03.2005 9.4N 97.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.03.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061715