** WTIN20 DEMS 060630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 06-03-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTICE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) WESTERLY / SOUTH WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILS AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT80 EGRR 060650 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.03.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 5.4N 89.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.03.2005 5.4N 89.5W WEAK 12UTC 07.03.2005 6.4N 90.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.03.2005 7.2N 91.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.03.2005 8.2N 92.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.03.2005 8.1N 93.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.03.2005 8.9N 94.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.03.2005 9.7N 94.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.03.2005 10.6N 94.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.03.2005 10.7N 95.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.03.2005 11.0N 95.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.03.2005 11.2N 97.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060650 ** WTPS01 NFFN 060600 *** Gale Warning 035 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 06/0716 UTC 2005 UTC. Tropical Cyclone RAE [995 hPa] centre was located near 23 decimal 0 South 162 decimal 7 West at 060600 UTC. Position Poor. Repeat position 23.0S 162.7W at 060600 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southeast at 15 knots and gradually decelerating. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 40 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 23.8S 161.5W at 061800 UTC and near 24.3S 160.9W at 070600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 034. ** WTPS01 NFFN 060600 *** GALE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI MAR 06/0716 UTC 2005 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [995 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23 DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 162 DECIMAL 7 WEST AT 060600 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 23.0S 162.7W AT 060600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY DECELERATING. CYCLONE WEAKENING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.8S 161.5W AT 061800 UTC AND NEAR 24.3S 160.9W AT 070600 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 034. ** WTPS31 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (RAE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- NEAR 23.0S5 163.0W0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 163.0W0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 24.0S6 162.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 24.7S3 161.6W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 25.3S0 161.8W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 25.8S5 162.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM --- REMARKS: 060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 162.7W6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P (RAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (INGRID) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPS32 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050752ZMAR2005// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (INGRID) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- NEAR 13.2S6 148.3E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 148.3E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 13.6S0 148.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 13.9S3 148.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 14.0S5 148.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 13.9S3 147.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM --- REMARKS: 060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 148.4E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (INGRID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFI- CANTLY AND SHIFT TO A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE EARLY-PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 052051Z3 MAR 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 052100) NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (RAE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPS11 NFFN 060600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 06/0818 UTC 2005 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [995hPa] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 162.7W AT 060600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON 060556Z SSMI DATA AND GOES9/10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE. CYCLONE WEAKENING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. RAE HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE PAST 6 HOURS. MAJOR CONVECTION IS DETACHED FROM CENTRE AND LIES TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. SYSTEM HAS ASSYMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE AND NOW APPEARS TO BE TRANSFORMING INTO EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH SEEMS TO TAKE EFFECT ON RAE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED BANDING FEATURE WITH A WRAP OF 0.35 YIELDING DT=2.0, MET=PAT=2.0; FT BASED ON DT: T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. RAE REMAINS SOUTH OF UPPER 250 RIDGE AXIS, UNDER STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. CIMMS MAINTAINS SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING RAE SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. RAE IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM RUNS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. GALES ARE THEN LIKELY TO BECOME DETACHED FROM CENTRE BUT MAINTIANED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST: AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 23.8S 161.5W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 24.3S 161.5W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK: AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 24.6S 161.1W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 24.9S 161.5W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 060600 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI MAR 06/0818 UTC 2005 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [995HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 162.7W AT 060600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON 060556Z SSMI DATA AND GOES9/10 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE. CYCLONE WEAKENING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. RAE HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE PAST 6 HOURS. MAJOR CONVECTION IS DETACHED FROM CENTRE AND LIES TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. SYSTEM HAS ASSYMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE AND NOW APPEARS TO BE TRANSFORMING INTO EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM AND COULD BE DOWNGRADED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH SEEMS TO TAKE EFFECT ON RAE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED BANDING FEATURE WITH A WRAP OF 0.35 YIELDING DT=2.0, MET=PAT=2.0; FT BASED ON DT: T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. RAE REMAINS SOUTH OF UPPER 250 RIDGE AXIS, UNDER STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. CIMMS MAINTAINS SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING RAE SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. RAE IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM RUNS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. GALES ARE THEN LIKELY TO BECOME DETACHED FROM CENTRE BUT MAINTIANED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST: AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 23.8S 161.5W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 24.3S 161.5W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK: AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 24.6S 161.1W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 24.9S 161.5W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061400 UTC.